A key recession indicator is flashing yellow again — but there's one reason this time could be diffe

The gap between long- and short-term Treasury yields is now at its narrowest level since the financial crisis. Yield-curve inversions, in which long-term rates actually slip below short-term ones, have previously been reliable predictors of recessions. Wall Street and Federal Reserve officials are worried about the prospect of an inversion — but caution that the Fed's expanded balance sheet makes the flattening trend less worrisome. An important recession indicator is flashing yellow in...